4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.23 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP