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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 2 at the 2
Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17
What Actually Happened
(10:26) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete short left to 28-D.Achane.
The Three Options
GO
+3.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.35 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 2, worth +0.38 EP
KICK
+1.37 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
