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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep left to 84-E.Ezukanma [55-D.Jones].

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP