4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-48-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.98 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model