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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:15) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP