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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 64

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 34 for 21 yards (48-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model