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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 62

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NYJ 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 9 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model