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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 50

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson up the middle to NYJ 45 for 5 yards (94-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.02 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model