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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model