Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

(6:12) 8-S.Martin punts 59 yards to BAL 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 3-D.Harty to BAL 29 for 13 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.81 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model