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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 40 for 6 yards (51-J.Ross; 40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 37, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model