4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to BAL 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 3-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -3.10 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP