Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Buffalo Bills 10

(9:05) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model