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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 10 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model