Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 96

Buffalo Bills 10 – Baltimore Ravens 35

(5:49) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to BAL 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 3-D.Harty to BUF 49 for 6 yards (56-J.Solomon).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.29 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 96, worth -5.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model