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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington. PENALTY on BAL-16-T.Wallace, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 11.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.65 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.57 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP