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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model