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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 5-Di.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 4 yards (20-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model