Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

(5:26) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep middle to 84-F.Franks (33-D.Anthony).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

What Happened

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model