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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 1

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CIN 1 for no gain (90-K.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +4.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.88 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model