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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP