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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to CAR 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 8 for 1 yard (33-D.Anthony).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model