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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to CAR 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 20 for 13 yards (20-D.Turner; 26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.72 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP