Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(14:55) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 35 for 5 yards (20-C.Hart).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model