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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to LAC 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP