Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 98

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(4:24) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 48, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 46 for -2 yards (87-S.Fehoko).

The Three Options

GO -3.82 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.24 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 98, worth -6.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model