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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-H.Butker 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model