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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to KC 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-S.Fehoko.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model