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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-21-A.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model