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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to GB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -1.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP