Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 28

(:50) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Nailor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-80-B.Melton at MIN 3.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.50 EP
40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model