4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. ** Injury Update: MIN-4-B.Powell has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP