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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.74 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model