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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to GB 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.04 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP