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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model