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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 37 for 1 yard (21-A.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model