Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 65

New England Patriots 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(3:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to SF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 17 for 8 yards (49-J.Cardona; 53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.41 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model