Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 27 – New England Patriots 10

(:46) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to NE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper. 25-M.Jones to NE 32 for 15 yards (32-P.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model