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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP