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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:08) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP