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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model