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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(:38) 43-M.Hayball punts 40 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-20-P.Werner.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.07 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP