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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model