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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-1-A.Taylor has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model