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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 3, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-12-K.Hodge at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model