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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 22-R.Shaheed (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model