Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 23 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 41, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at ATL 42 for 17 yards (44-T.Andersen). ATL-44-T.Andersen was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.54 EP
45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model