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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 7-T.Hill left guard to ATL 20 for 7 yards (55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model