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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.19 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP