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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 35
Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 14
What Actually Happened
(:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at WAS 42 for -7 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
The Three Options
GO
+1.87 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.95 EP
- 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -0.93 EP
KICK
+1.31 EP
- 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
- 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT
-0.09 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
